In Contraception on Fertility and Aborti on in Wes Tern Countries

Survey information on fertility intentions, patterns of contraceptive use, contraceptive failures and abortions is used to develop estimates of unwanted births and of unplanned pregnancies for seven countries, by method of contraception. Potential improvements in contraception, leading to more use of highly efficient methods are considered, and several scenarios for improved contraceptive use are presented. The impact each would have on fertility levels and on abort ion rates is estimated. Although improvements in contraception will have only a limited impact on fertility which is already very low their impact on abort ion could be considerable. R~sum~. L'impact potent ie l du progr~s de la contraception sur la f~condit~ et l'avortement darts les pays occidentaux Les auteurs utilisent des donn6es d 'enqu&es sur les intentions de procr6ation, le recours/~ la contraception, les 6checs de la contraception et l 'avortement pour 6valuer les naissances non d6sir6es et les grossesses non planifi6es, selon la m&hode de contraception utilis6e, dans sept pays. Ils envisagent d'6ventuels progr~s de la contraception conduisant / t u n 61argissement de l 'emploi de m6thodes tr~s efficaces, et 6valuent, dans diff6rents sc6narios de progr~s du recours/ t la contraception, son impact sur les niveaux de la f6condit6 et de l 'avortement. Si le progr~s de la contraception n 'aura qu 'un effet limit6 sur la f6condit6 d6j/t tr~s basse son impact sur les niveaux de l 'avortement pourrait &re consid6rable. * Acknowledgements: This paper has benefitted from careful readings by Noreen Goldman, Norman Ryder, G6rman Rodrlguez and Anne Pebley. We are also indebted to Elise F. Jones of the Alan Guttmacher Institute for some of the European data used here. A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the European Population Conference in Jyv~iskyl~i (Finland), 1987. * * Author's address: Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. 0168-6577/87/$3.50 © 1987, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. (North-Holland) C,F, Westoff et al, / Contraception, fertility and abortion